N. Masdjojo, Gregorius
(2012)
KAJIAN PENDEKATAN KEYNESIAN DAN MONETERIS TERHADAP DINAMIKA
CADANGAN DEVISA : STUDI EMPIRIS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1983-2008.
SEMINAR NASIONAL DAN CALL FOR PAPERS .
ISSN ISBN: 978-979-3649-65-8
Abstract
The main objective of this research is to analyze the effect of the change on the National
Income, the Domestic Credit, the Exchange Rate and the Interest Rate to the change of the
International Reserve. The research analyze based on the Keynesian Balance of Payment
Theory (KBPT) and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP). The KBPT was
oriented to the short term analysis and the MABP was oriented to the long term analysis.The
data is analyzed by the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results showed that in the long run
the National Income, the Domestic Credit, the Exchange Rate and the Interest Rate can change
the International Reserve significantly partially and simultaneously. The results showed that the
effect of the independent variables to the International Reserve is the same as the hypotheses of
the KBPT and MABP. It can be concluded from ECT value that in Indonesia the economy needs
6-7 quartals (1.5 years) to reach the new equilibrium.
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